Who Will Pay? Coping with Aging Societies, Climate Change, and
OtherLong-Term Fiscal Challenges:
September 2nd, 2006
here's an old blog entry worth repeating.
Sunday, November 23, 2003 7:41:45 PM
Who
Will Pay? Coping with Aging Societies, Climate Change, and
OtherLong-Term Fiscal Challenges:
Bradford Delong writes Notes:Long-Term
Budgeting
Yet another book to add to the
must-read-soon pile:
Which links to an Economist article, In
the long run we are all broke, How to stop governments going bust.
...Most countries' explicit net debt -
issued as bonds and traded every
day in financial markets - is at manageable levels, relative to GDP.
However, embodied in current tax and expenditure policies are a lot of
obligations for which governments have not yet had to make explicit
provision. This implicit liability arises mainly from future increases
in spending on pensions and health care. Include it, and total debt
vaults to levels last seen (for explicit debt) in wartime. Governments
often fall into bad habits when their debts are so high, usually by
resorting to the printing press and using inflation to cut the real
value of their liabilities....
So what is to be done? First,
governments must look much farther ahead
than they do now. An increasing number of western countries are
planning their public finances on a basis of three to five years, but
this is nowhere near enough, argues Mr Heller. They need to incorporate
a long-range perspective (of at least 25 years and preferably more)
into their budgets. Second, these projections should be vetted by
independent agencies such as America's Congressional Budget Office,
because of governments' tendency to see the silver lining and not the
cloud....
That links to an IMF publication, Who
Will Pay? Coping with Aging Societies, Climate Change, and Other
Long-Term Fiscal Challenges: